BBNaija All Stars: Cee-C sports N800k designer shoes at show's premiere, "You will prosper", 3 other things Ngozi said to Davido after he blessed her with $10k for returning $70k, UBS fined $387 mn over Credit Suisse misconduct: US Fed. The issue was aggravated when Nyesom Wike, Rivers governor and Atikus closest opponent in the primary, was snubbed by the PDP flag bearer who picked Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate. Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. Kwankwaso's protg Abba 'Gida Gida' was Since then, observers have feared that legal loopholes and gaps in election administration could leave future elections vulnerable to attempts at being overturned. Nigeria presidential election 2023: Who are the main candidates and picked a Muslim vice-presidential candidate. Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Peter Obi and Bola Ahmed Tinubu PT State of the Race: Who wins Nigeria's presidential election? At the moment, both the FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics averages show Trump has widened his lead over DeSantis since early April. Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. It also lost one state Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), Atiku Abubakar of the You are already subscribed to our newsletter! To win an election outright, a candidate has to win the most votes, with at least 25% in at least 24 of Nigeria's 36 states. He also issued a congratulatory message to Muslims on the Islamic New Year on July 19, 2023 (archived here). More recently, commentators spilled ink over how the Supreme Court case Moore v. Harper was a bomb that could upend or transform the 2024 election. Another important point to consider is the electorial history of different candidates, if the candidate has been in a previous presidential bid and has had a good performance in the past election, it can be a plus point in this race. (Juilen de Rosa, Pool Photo via AP)/ Welcome to the Muhammadu Buhari Succession Show! Another poll conducted by SBM Intelligence for Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria, projected Mr Obi would win 15 states and cross the 25 per cent threshold in 25 states overall. The poll, which is the second conducted in four months, showed that Obi leads Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Kwakol Research Forecasts the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) the winner of the 2023 presidential election. For example, according to our calculations, the PPs most likely outcome would be around 142 seats, but its 90% probability range is from 119 to 164 seats. Those errors depend on at least two things: the size of the party and the closeness of the elections. won at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of all states and the If his worst fears come to pass, the APC candidate will bear the brunt of the anger of voters against Mr Buharis policies and general performance over the last seven and a half years. Your support matters! Elections in Nigeria are mostly faced with a series of election petitions, which question the validity of results declared by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC). WASHINGTON - For some, Donald Trump's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 is looking a lot like his victorious run in 2016 - and at the same time is totally . In addition to these factors, its also important to consider the political landscape. It works in four steps: 1) aggregate and average the . Mondaq uses cookies on this website. Legit Poll: Nigerians Predict Who Will Win 2023 Presidential Election 2023 ELECTIONS Atiku has 21 states he's sure of 25%, Tinubu has 20 states he's sure of 25%. It is easy to see the uncertainty that still surrounds these elections. Out of every 100 possible futures, the numbers at the top say in how many the right wins and in how many the left wins. The appeal court (archived here) is the first stage in the presidential election disputes and parties not satisfied with the ruling of the lower court can appeal to the Supreme Court which has the final say. Again, the lawyers representing Abubakar and Tinubu were asked to submit their final written statements within 10 days. Surprisingly, rallies by Mr Tinubu in Owerri, Ibadan and Maiduguri; and by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Adamawa, drew large and excited crowds, suggesting that many Nigerians are eager to defy the economic situation and cast their ballots on Election Day. The 2024 election is more likely to hinge on traditional issues like inflation and the state of the economy than it is on relitigating 2020 or the scandal surrounding Jan. 6 and Trumps attempts to overturn the election. The lowest voter registration percentages were recorded in the North Central with 87 per cent; North West with 86; and the South East with 84 per cent, the report said. The percentage of registered voters or voters with their permanent voters card as of December is 90 per cent in the North East; 89 per cent in the South West and 88 per cent in the South-South. Candidate. The media long dubbed it a four-horse race. Little Hercules biography: where is the kid bodybuilder now? Curiously too, this poll also suggests that the election may go into a runoff but not between the two candidates it found to be leading in most states. Of course, concerns about Trump trying to steal an election aren't unfounded. Average of surveys. A database is built with all the elections since 1986. is to rule the country. Ministerial List: Tinubu removes Wike, Ganduje's names over DSS report? Sunday, January 08, 2023 at 1:03 AM by Nurudeen Lawal Nigeria's legal icon Afe Babalola (SAN) has predicted the winner of the forthcoming 2023 presidential election At a press briefing in Ado Ekiti, the elder statesman said the poll would be won by the highest spender, not the best among the candidates President of the United States from 2017 to 2021, 46th and current president of the United States, American politician, 46th Governor of Florida. The nationwide poll shows a significant . There is a perception that the polls are not reliable, but the truth is that the polls have not done badly lately. Those who wish to stop him in 2024 would be wise to focus on winning a traditional campaign, even if it doesnt feel like one. Choice of distribution type. The conservative Popular Party (PP) would have around 142 seats, followed by the Socialist Party (PSOE) with 108, the far-right Vox with 35 and the left-wing Sumar with 34. The 2023 Nigerian Presidential race is shaping up to be a historic one, with many candidates from different political parties vying for the chance to lead the country. Aside from the cash supply crisis, public security remains tenuous in some parts of the country. The history of presidential elections consists of example after example of unexpected events arising close to Election Day. Be the first to get hottest news from our Editor-in-Chief, Check your email and confirm your subscription. Of course, it also wasnt that long ago that DeSantis seemed to have all the momentum. Ministerial List: Tinubu removes Wike, Ganduje's names over DSS report? Nigeria's 2023 presidential election: 10 factors that could affect the Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Peter Obi and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Twitter: @bisiabidoye, All content is Copyrighted 2023 The Premium Times, Nigeria. It found that Atiku will win all but one of his 11 states in the Northwest and NorthEast where the Hausa-Fulani and Muslims like him are predominant, Mr Obi will win virtually all the states in the Southeast, Southsouth and Northcentral where the Igbo and Christians like him are predominant, while Mr Tinubu will win all the six states in the Southwest and three in the Northwest where either the Yoruba or Muslims like him are predominant. Taking into account all this data and the natural error of the polls, what are the probabilities of each event? The party lost in two out of six states in the his second and final term. Meanwhile, Tinubu continues to perform his role as president. President Tinubu again leaves Abuja for security function, BREAKING: Mourning as former influential PDP senator loses wife, From N197 to N617: Video of Tinubu campaigning to crash fuel price resurfaces online amid hike, Asian markets mostly gain ahead of key rate decisions. significant electoral support spread throughout the country, but This is not to say that we are endorsing any particular candidate, but rather, our assessment is based on what we have seen and know so far. One of the front-runners for the race is the former vice president, who is trying to get into Aso Rock again. 55% of the time PP and Vox will add up to a majority. 2023: See List Of Persons Interested In Becoming Nigeria's - AllNews The greatest difficulty lies in finding the right numbers with very small parties that could have options for seats, but about which we have very little data. Every Nigerian has rights, duties, liabilities and privileges entrenched under various existing laws. However, for those who will cast their votes regardless, many may take out their anger on whichever candidate they can blame for the situation. In line with reports in the introduction to this piece, unless the cash squeeze on everyday Nigerians eases before Election Day, voter turnout will be low across the country. their bases. Spain's opposition right-wing Popular Party (PP) won Sunday's snap general election, with over 99% of the votes counted, but was set to fall short of a parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, Rabiu Kwankwaso has maintained a very strong in Yobe and Borno states for example. Peter Obi, Labour Party presidential candidate, has won in a new poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited and commissioned by Anap Foundation in December before the 2023 general election. Exaggerated and discredited narratives dominated news cycles. This happened with some models of the US elections in 2016. predecessor had died in office and power had prematurely fallen to Support PREMIUM TIMES' journalism of integrity and credibility, EXCLUSIVE: UN raises four major concerns about Nigerias forthcoming elections, Amnesty International demands identities of #EndSARS protesters due for mass burial, Ministerial List: After about 56 days in office, Tinubu has till Friday to appoint ministers, Football Transfers: Nigerias Boniface excited about special opportunity at Bayer Leverkusen, EXCLUSIVE: Nigerian billionaire, son at war over multi-billion dollar family assets, #EndSARS: What Lagos govt said about 103 recovered bodies and what we know, EDITORIAL: Impunity and human rights concerns in Kanos gale of demolitions, Nigerias Federal/States Budgets since 2005. The first part of the four-minute-long video shows a man narrating in pidgin English -- a simplified form of English widely spoken in Nigeria -- alongside pictures of Tinubu, Obi, and Orji Okpe, a TV presenter on local station Arise Television. guide to the subject matter. See all di Nigeria presidential candidates for 2023 so far - BBC As a result, a candidate with a solid economic plan and a proven track record of creating jobs and spurring growth is likely to do well in the polls. Both of them will meet the spread requirement in more than sufficient numbers of states. There are 176,846 polling units across the country. Legit.ng notes that this is simply a poll to provide an insight into the possible voting pattern. northeast and even suffered a heavy defeat there when he ran He is also considered to be a strong leader who has the support of many Nigerians. contractor. 2:09. Only time will tell who will emerge as the winner of the 2023 Nigerian Presidential race. He is considered to be a strong leader who is well-respected by many Nigerians. First GOP presidential debate: Here's a rundown of who will qualify The polls demonstrate his electoral strength. Peter Obi, Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar (TAR) It's official.